Effective from the 5th of April, President Trump has announced that UK exports to the US would be subject to a 10% tariff.
It’s part of a sweeping range of tariffs, set to impact countries across the globe. Exports from the EU will be subject to a 20% tariff, while a 54% tariff has been placed on Chinese exports.
The 25% rate for Canada and Mexico announced last month remains unchanged.
Now, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has conducted some initial analysis on the impact of these measures.
Jess Corsair, AHDB senior economist, said: “These announcements go against the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which aims to facilitate free, predictable and smooth global trade. The new imposed tariffs will increase barriers to trade globally. The WTO also has the “most-favored nation” (MFN) principle which means that countries cannot discriminate between their trading partners, so all members are treated equally when it comes to trade. This principle has been ignored as the US has implemented different tariffs on different countries.
“The UK’s main exports to the US include machinery, cars, pharmaceuticals, fishing and electronics. The announcements also included a 25% tariff on foreign made cars. There are potential global economic implications from these announcements, as we have seen on global stock markets this morning. There could also be impacts on inflation as tariffs make imported goods more expensive, and as well as slowing down global trade volumes and subsequently slowing global economic growth.”
The main agricultural exporters to the US are Canada, Mexico, the EU, Australia and New Zealand. The US imported £7bn of beef, £1.2bn of pork, £1.14bn sheep meat and £1.4bn of cheese (2022-24 3 year average).
The main exporters of beef to the US include:
- Canada – £1.07 billion (3-year average 2022-24)
- Mexico – £1.41 billion (3-year average 2022-24)
- Australia – £1.48 billion (3-year average 2022-24)
- New Zealand – £784 million (3-year average 2022-24)
The main exporters of pork to the US include:
- Canada – £754 million (3-year average 2022-24)
- EU – £241 million (3-year average 2022-24)
- Mexico – £119 million (3-year average 2022-24)
The main exporters of cheese to the US include:
- EU – £1.02 billion (3-year average 2022-24)
- UK – £68 million (3-year average 2022-24)
- Canada – £57 million (3-year average 2022-24)
Jess added: “This will be a major disruptor of global trade, but the impacts will be difficult to predict until we know how the various trading partners will react. As this starts to become clear we will be able to examine the impacts on the UK and global markets. It is likely that there will be changes to trade flows and we will examine the impact how trade will be displaced especially with key agricultural exporters such as Canada, Mexico, Australia and New Zealand.”
UK trade
While the UK is not one of the main exporters of agricultural products to the US, it still has a significant financial stake. Exports from the UK include:
- £2.9 million of fresh and frozen beef (3-year average 2022-24)
- £23 million of pork (3-year average 2022-24)
- £68 million of cheese (3-year average 2022-24)
Jess said: “Currently the UK has access to the US rest of the world quota for beef exports. This quota was filled by 17 January in 2025, and then any beef exports are subject to tariffs of 26.4%. It is unclear whether the new 10% tariffs will be additional to the current 26.4% tariff. Additionally, it is unclear whether the 10% tariff will be additional to those countries who already have Free Trade Agreements in place.
“Further clarification is needed regarding how these tariffs will be implemented alongside current FTAs, quotas and agreements. AHDB will be monitoring this and doing more in-depth analysis on the implication of the tariffs on global trade and the economy.”
Response from the industry
Figures from across the industry have been quick to call for government to not give into demands from the US to accept American imports in exchange for lower tariffs.
Country Land and Business Association (CLA) vice president Joe Evans said: “Donald Trump might demand we eat chlorinated chicken and beef reared using growth hormones – but British consumers say no. British farmers, who must comply with some of the highest animal welfare and environmental regulations in the world, should not be forced to compete with American farmers who produce cheap food to much lower standards.
“British exports will be affected by these tariffs, which could harm producers of world class wine, spirits, cheeses and other goods. The best thing the public can do to support these farmers and producers is to buy British.
“Ministers would do well to remember that it is the job of British farmers to feed the nation, whilst at the same time being exemplars of sustainable farming practices. We can only do that with a strong and healthy farming sector. Unfortunately, recent government policies – such as changes to inheritance tax – have left the industry considerably weaker. The Prime Minister and the Chancellor should reverse these disastrous policies immediately, adding a new line of defence against America’s aggressive trade demands.”
The NFU called the tariffs a challenge for both the agricultural industry and the wider UK economy, as the US represents the largest agri-food market outside of the EU.
The Union was further concerned that these tariffs may also result in products that were destined for the US being redirected to the UK.
NFU president Tom Bradshaw said: “We have been working closely with the government in the lead up to the announcements. While the UK has been hit by a lower baseline tariff compared to the EU, this remains a challenge for the UK and for agriculture, with the US being our second largest export market beyond the EU.
“While this is a developing and concerning situation, we are working in genuine partnership with the government and sharing our expertise on this to ensure, if there is any market disruption in response to a change in the movement of goods and products between affected countries, we can respond swiftly.
“The United States is the largest market for British agri-food products outside of the European Union and our farmers are proud to supply high quality, authentic, and unique British meats and cheeses to American consumers.
“We stand united in our desire to work together to ensure British farmers and growers are at the forefront of any decision-making and will continue to work hand in glove with government as the situation develops.”
The NFU notes that in 2024, the UK exported 432,735 tonnes of food, beverages, and live animals to the USA, valued at £2.568 billion.
Within this, the five largest export categories were:
- Beverages, Spirits and Vinegar – £1.59 billion. Within this, Scotch Whisky makes most of the trade value (c. £913 million).
- Fish and crustaceans – £310 million. Within this, salmon drives the vast majority of the trade value.
- Preparations of cereals (e.g. breakfast cereals), flours, starch and milk including bakers’ wares – £199 million. Within this, infant formula is the single largest element at £74 million.
- Miscellaneous food preparations including sauces – c. £113 million.
- Dairy products and birds’ eggs – £97 million. Within this category Cheddar cheese is by far the largest item at £47 million.
JCB to double US plant to tackle tariffs
JCB has announced that it will double the size of its new factory, currently being constructed in Texas. It comes as the company states that the tariffs will impact its business in the short term.
JCB has manufactured products in the US for 50 years and purchased 400 acres of land in San Antonio last year to increase production.
The original plan for a 500,000 sq ft plant has now been revised, with the factory set to double in size. The new $500 million plant will employ 1,500 people.
JCB chairman Anthony Bamford said: “JCB has been in business for 80 years this year and we are well accustomed to change. The United States is the largest market for construction equipment in the world and President Trump has galvanised us into evaluating how we can make even more products in the USA, which has been an important market for JCB since we sold our first machine there in 1964.”
JCB CEO Graeme Macdonald added: “In the short term, the imposition of tariffs will have a significant impact on our business. However, in the medium term, our planned factory in San Antonio will help to mitigate the impact. We are thankful that the tariff is only 10% and we can only hope that the UK Government will conclude negotiations on a trade deal in the coming days and weeks.”